002463
Downgraded, plan cancelled Latest rating：Watch
Entry zone
112.5 – 115.9
Near market · as of 2026-10-08
Stop
106.6
initial distance -8.0%
Full size
9.4%
in tranches 40% / 30% / 30%
Support / resistance
112.5 / 124.5
ATR(14) 6.4
CloseEntry zoneStop
Triggers
- CancelledFirst tranche: price enters the entry zone3.8%@ 115.9
- ArmedAdd 1: pullback holds support (confirmed at close, executed next open)2.8%@ 114.1
- ArmedAdd 2: breakout above resistance on volume, held 2 days2.8%@ 124.5
- CancelledStop: sell everything below this price@ 106.6
Thesis and red linesChinese only
- Business高多层/HDI PCB代工，赚云厂交换机与AI服务器迭代的技术溢价；H1数据通讯占营收83%，交换机71亿为主，AI服务器仅18亿
- Moat224G/1.6T批量出货、头部客户早期绑定，PCB毛利率40.5%升4个点，在变宽；但公司自述新增产能将摊薄门槛，有变窄风险
- Management吴礼淦家族控股，董事长陈梅芳1946年生；承诺技术优先不盲从扩张，H1净利+74%已兑现；信息不足：缺增减持记录与接班安排
- Margin of safety按2026年EPS一致预期3.38，成本价约33倍、2027年约24倍；边际来自盈利高增消化估值，而非资产折价，前提是增速不失速
- Downside机械止损104.09限亏8%；1.6T批量出货、泰国Q2扭亏提供基本面垫；但H1资本开支36亿、FCF为负，资产负债表不是缓冲
- Assumption 12026Q3数据通讯PCB营收同比增速>50%
- Assumption 22026全年归母净利≥60亿（花旗预测67亿）
- Assumption 32026下半年PCB毛利率维持≥38%（H1为40.52%）
- Red line季度PCB毛利率跌破35%或连续两季环比下滑清仓
- Red line交换机+AI服务器营收同比增速降至30%以下减半并复核论点
- Red line头部客户224G/1.6T份额被竞品替代（公告或调研确认）清仓
- Red line泰国基地重新亏损或海外客户认证受阻减仓三分之一
- Red lineH股大幅折价发行或扩产致有息负债激增、再融资复核仓位上限
Timeline
- Plan cancelled · Downgraded, plan cancelled
- Rating change · Buy → Watch
- Entered pool@ 115.9
Rating historyChinese only
- Watch10-09 -3.1% 且日内振幅 13%，PCB 资金流出未止，估值合理但等止跌
- Buy板块暴跌日平盘——相对强弱是技术面视角最硬的信号；AI 服务器 PCB 不在 FCC 光模块推演范围内；分批，跌破 110 止损
Earlier rounds
| In | Out | Entry | P&L | R | Exit reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | 2026-07-29 | 112.5 | -4.8% | -0.60 | Stop loss |
Paper portfolio executed mechanically from published rules. Not real trades, not investment advice.