0992
Downgraded, plan cancelled Latest rating：Watch
Entry zone
24.91 – 28.06
Near market · as of 2026-10-16
Stop
25.82
initial distance -8.0%
Full size
9.4%
in tranches 40% / 30% / 30%
Support / resistance
24.85 / 30
ATR(14) 2.1
CloseEntry zoneStop
Triggers
- CancelledFirst tranche: price enters the entry zone3.8%@ 28.06
- ArmedAdd 1: pullback holds support (confirmed at close, executed next open)2.8%@ 25.38
- ArmedAdd 2: breakout above resistance on volume, held 2 days2.8%@ 30
- CancelledStop: sell everything below this price@ 25.82
Thesis and red linesChinese only
- Business信息不足：缺分业务收入与利润拆分。已知是PC＋服务器＋服务的硬件生意，TTM营收912亿美元，毛利率15.9%
- Moat信息不足：缺市占率与分部毛利趋势。研报称Vera Rubin首批交付是卡喉地位，但服务器组装毛利低，宽窄无法判断
- Management信息不足：缺管理层指引兑现记录。仅知杨元庆任董事长兼CEO，内部人持股约38.6%
- Margin of safety安全边际只来自前瞻估值：Fwd PE约8.5，TTM PE 25.8、P/B 6.0，要靠前瞻EPS兑现，没有资产保护
- Downside信息不足：缺下行情景测算。只有机械止损24.10，单笔亏损约8%；FCF为负、流动比率0.98，不构成基本面托底
- Assumption 111-19财报季度营收同比≥30%（TTM为43.1%）
- Assumption 2集团毛利率≥15%，AI服务器放量未以价换量
- Assumption 3ISG季度经营利润为正，且同比改善
- Red lineVera Rubin/NVL72首批交付被证伪或延后≥1个季度清仓，卡喉论点作废
- Red line11-19财报营收同比<15%，或管理层下调AI服务器指引减半仓并重审论点
- Red line一致前瞻EPS下修>20%，低估值前提消失退出
- Red line集团毛利率跌破14%，放量不增利降至半仓
- Red line经营现金流转负，且流动比率<0.9暂停加仓，复核负债
Timeline
- Plan cancelled · Downgraded, plan cancelled
- Rating change · Buy → Watch
- Entered pool@ 28.06
Rating historyChinese only
- Watch下调——收盘 25.26 跌破候补止损 25.82，两周内两次单日暴跌，候补暂停；fPE 8.5 便宜，但趋势破坏，等放量止跌
- Buy放量反弹，Fwd PE 9.3 是 AI 服务器链最低估值；现价在候补入场区 24.91–28.06 上沿，止损 25.82
- Buy候补池标的（10-17 入池，入场区间 24.91–28.06，止损 25.82），评级与上次一致为买入；1.8 倍放量 +8% 是全港股当日最强的量价配合，现价正好触及入场区间上沿 28.06，不追高，回踩 26–27 补仓，守 25.82
- Buy未变——收盘正好在入场上沿 28.06，不追高，回踩 26–27 分批；前瞻 PE 9.4 对应的是"AI 服务器组装"的低毛利，但 NVL72 交付是中游里最确定的放量节点
- Buy前瞻 PE 9.4 倍对应 AI 服务器 + AI PC 双引擎，Vera Rubin 首批交付方身份是"卡喉"地位；放量 8% 后可能回踩，26.5–27.5 区间分批
Earlier rounds
| In | Out | Entry | P&L | R | Exit reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | 2026-10-09 | 34.24 | -8.2% | -1.02 | Stop loss |
| 2026-09-03 | 2026-09-08 | 31.16 | -8.2% | -1.02 | Stop loss |
| 2026-07-28 | 2026-07-30 | 23.86 | -8.2% | -1.02 | Stop loss |
Paper portfolio executed mechanically from published rules. Not real trades, not investment advice.