Applied Materials
Downgraded, plan cancelled Latest rating：Watch
Entry zone
436.5 – 446.6
Near market · as of 2026-10-14
Stop
416.3
initial distance -6.8%
Full size
10.0%
in tranches 40% / 30% / 30%
Support / resistance
438.7 / 547.9
ATR(14) 20.2
CloseEntry zoneStop
Triggers
- CancelledFirst tranche: price enters the entry zone4.0%@ 446.6
- ArmedAdd 1: pullback holds support (confirmed at close, executed next open)3.0%@ 443.7
- ArmedAdd 2: breakout above resistance on volume, held 2 days3.0%@ 547.9
- CancelledStop: sell everything below this price@ 416.3
Timeline
- Plan cancelled · Downgraded, plan cancelled
- Rating change · Buy → Watch
- Entered pool@ 446.6
Rating historyChinese only
- Watch下调——8 连跌 -21% 且跌破候补止损 416.33，管理层拒给 WFE 指引、点名"能源融资延迟"是宏观风险落地的直接证据；RSI 29 不追空，但要等 11/12 财报或 ASML 后续订单信号再重新评估入场
- Buy池内（入场区 438.66～464.24，止损 428.50），收盘距止损仅 0.4%，严格按纪律——跌破不扛；基本面侧 ASML 的"供给不够"同样适用于 AMAT
- Buy设备龙头周跌 14% 后 Forward PE 23.8，与 ASML 同逻辑但更便宜；台积电若确认 capex 上修即为触发
Earlier rounds
| In | Out | Entry | P&L | R | Exit reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | 2026-08-28 | 507.4 | -8.2% | -1.02 | Stop loss |
Paper portfolio executed mechanically from published rules. Not real trades, not investment advice.