MU
Open Latest rating：Buy
Entry zone
856.5 – 904.9
Near market · as of 2026-10-19
Stop
813.4
initial distance -8.0%
Full size
9.4%
in tranches 40% / 30% / 30%
Entry → last
884.1 → 896.1
+1.3% · 0.16R
Support / resistance
856.5 / 917.2
ATR(14) 49.1
CloseEntry zoneStopTarget 1● buys (green) / sells (red)
Triggers
- FiredFirst tranche: price enters the entry zone3.8%@ 904.9
- ArmedAdd 1: pullback holds support (confirmed at close, executed next open)2.8%@ 868.8
- ArmedAdd 2: breakout above resistance on volume, held 2 days2.8%@ 917.2
- ArmedTake profit 1: trim 1/3, stop to breakeven@ 1,025.6
- ArmedTake profit 2: trim another 1/3, trail the rest@ 1,131.7
- ArmedStop: sell everything below this price@ 813.4
- ArmedTime stop: 20 sessions without +1R or an add
Thesis and red linesChinese only
- Business卖DRAM/HBM/NAND存储芯片，赚供需周期价差；最新财年毛利率80.7%、净利率63.8%，正处景气高位
- MoatHBM靠工艺与产能壁垒，研报称2027年供给大部分已签约；信息不足：缺份额与良率对比，无法判断变宽还是变窄
- Management信息不足：缺资本配置历史与指引兑现记录；内部人仅持0.24%，且近期有减持（研报认为是噪音）
- Margin of safety前瞻PE约4.4倍（前瞻EPS 206.7对应TTM 74.3），研报认为已计入2027年后存储过剩；净现金约382亿美元
- Downside负债仅52亿美元、流动比率3.3，财务上难出事；但beta 2.23、周期回落时盈利弹性大，下行靠813.40机械止损
- Assumption 1下季（约2026-12公布）营收同比仍>100%
- Assumption 2季度毛利率维持≥70%（最新财年80.7%）
- Assumption 3前瞻EPS共识3个月内下修不超过15%（基准206.7）
- Red line单季毛利率环比下滑超10个百分点，或指引毛利率<65%清仓
- Red line公司披露2027年HBM合约被削减、延期或重新议价清仓
- Red line前瞻EPS共识较206.7下修超25%，低PE的逻辑失效减半，重新估值
- Red line资本开支激增，自由现金流转负或净现金转为净负债减仓1/3
- Red line主要同行宣布大规模扩产HBM/DRAM，行业供给指引上调停止加仓，复核
Timeline
- First fill3.8%@ 885
- Entered pool@ 904.9
Rating historyChinese only
- Buy前瞻 PE 仅 4.4 倍，营收增速近 4 倍，是 AI 链利润最集中的环节之一；现价略高于 856–905 的入场区间，按止损 832.51 控制仓位分批
- BuyfPE 4.3 已按「2027 年后存储过剩」定价，HBM 2027 年供给大部分已签约；内部人减持是噪音，不改逻辑；现价高于候补区间 854–879，等回踩，止损 808.53
- BuyFwd PE 4.4 已把周期见顶充分定价，空头占比仅 2.3%，属于加息环境下"现金流最硬"的半导体；分批，跌破 200 日线 717.84 止损
Earlier rounds
| In | Out | Entry | P&L | R | Exit reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | 2026-10-13 | 1,028.1 | -9.3% | -1.30 | Stop loss |
| 2026-08-06 | 2026-09-14 | 829.5 | +11.3% | 1.41 | Trailing stop |
| 2026-07-27 | 2026-07-28 | 865.5 | -8.2% | -1.02 | Stop loss |
Paper portfolio executed mechanically from published rules. Not real trades, not investment advice.