ORCL
Downgraded, plan cancelled Latest rating：Watch
Entry zone
134.6 – 138.1
Near market · as of 2026-10-01
Stop
127.8
initial distance -7.5%
Full size
10.0%
in tranches 40% / 30% / 30%
Support / resistance
138.1 / 141.7
ATR(14) 6.88
CloseEntry zoneStop
Triggers
- CancelledFirst tranche: price enters the entry zone4.0%@ 138.1
- ArmedAdd 1: pullback holds support (confirmed at close, executed next open)3.0%@ 139.8
- ArmedAdd 2: breakout above resistance on volume, held 2 days3.0%@ 141.7
- CancelledStop: sell everything below this price@ 127.8
Timeline
- Plan cancelled · Downgraded, plan cancelled
- Rating change · Buy → Watch
- Entered pool@ 138.1
Rating historyChinese only
- Watch估值够低，但低估值来自约 1,300 亿美元债务和对 OpenAI 的订单集中度，在 10 年期美债 5.28% 的环境下这不是错杀；触发条件见模块十一
- BuyForward PE 12.5 配 +75.9% 目标价空间，是全篇「预期已被极度压低」的代表；但 -57% 距 52 周高说明市场在定价其 AI 数据中心承诺的履约风险（供电问题已被外部 CEO 点到），只做小仓逆向
Earlier rounds
| In | Out | Entry | P&L | R | Exit reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | 2026-09-01 | 153.6 | -6.7% | -1.03 | Stop loss |
Paper portfolio executed mechanically from published rules. Not real trades, not investment advice.