On November 5, strong US data (Q3 GDP +3.4%, unemployment 4.2%) coincided with a Nasdaq drop of 5.52% and a Philadelphia semiconductor index drop of 12.2%. The selling priced whether AI capex can actually be built, meaning permits, power and taxes. It was not a verdict on growth or earnings. Every company in the thesis that reported results beat expectations, so the abundance thesis is intact. Its financing and policy path just became the main variable. The briefing took no new Buy calls for the day and moved positions only on price discipline.
Key signals
- Nasdaq closed -5.52% at 24,315, a record single-day point drop. The S&P 500 fell 4.36% and the Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 12.2% (Axios reported about -9%, basis unverified). All 11 sectors fell.
- The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.84% (from 4.95% on 11/3). Bonds were bought, which points to risk-off rather than an inflation trade.
- The Hang Seng Tech index rose 5.55%, its biggest one-day gain this year, on turnover of HK$356.7 billion. Overnight futures (-1.58%) and the ADR index (-1.88%) point to a lower open on 11/6.
- UBS estimates that if approvals pause, nearly a third of new US data-center capacity for 2028 could slip. Jefferies puts about 13 GW of announced Texas projects at immediate risk.
- Three tracked positions hit stops: TSM, VRT and REGN. The briefing records REGN as a roughly +24.1% profit exit. CDNS was cut from Buy to Hold.
By theme
AI
- Nvidia fell 9.3%, AMD 17.3% and Micron 17.5%. TSMC's ADR fell 10.8%.
- AMD's strong Q3 (revenue +45%) was fully overridden by the macro move.
- Optical and networking names fell hard: Lumentum -18.7%, Credo -17.7%, Marvell -16.4%, Coherent -13.0%.
- Borrowers fell more than giants. CoreWeave is down 19% since Tuesday and IREN fell 17%, while Alphabet fell only 2.2%. Google's credit support for a roughly $19 billion Anthropic lease was cited as the dividing line.
- Nvidia reports 11/17 after the close.
Robotics
- Tesla fell 10.8% and closed below its 200-day average. Rockwell fell 14.2% on its earnings day. Symbotic hit a 52-week low.
- Intuitive Surgical held up best, down 2.8%, and stays at Hold.
- In China, the humanoid robot index rose 4.19%. UBTech (9880:HKEX) rose 5.18% with no order announcements. Robosense (2498:HKEX) rose 5.31% on volume, but the briefing did not open a new Buy.
Space
- BlackSky rose 14.0% after Q3 revenue of $42.8 million (+118%), a net profit and a second guidance raise (single source, unverified).
- Others sold off: AST SpaceMobile -15.2%, Intuitive Machines -13.2%, Rocket Lab -12.2%, Firefly -11.6% (new 52-week low), SpaceX -9.05%.
- Rocket Lab and AST report 11/9, Firefly and CoreWeave on 11/10, and Intuitive Machines on 11/12.
Biotech
- BeOne (BeiGene) reported Q3 revenue of $1.89 billion (+34%) after the Hong Kong close. Brukinsa sales were $1.4 billion, and US sales topped $1 billion in a quarter for the first time. The full-year revenue guidance rose to $69–70 billion.
- Regeneron closed at 902.90 (-2.98%) after hitting its stop. Lilly closed at the day's low, 2.0% above its stop.
- The briefing says Isomorphic Labs is in talks to raise about $5 billion at roughly a $50 billion valuation (not closed). Listed AI-drug names are far smaller.
Hong Kong, A-shares and crypto
- Hong Kong rallied on liquidity (Hang Seng +3.67%): Tencent +7.17%, Alibaba +8.45%, Xiaomi +8.83%.
- In A-shares, the Shanghai index rose only 0.10%, and optical-module stocks followed US policy fears lower (Zhongji Innolight -7.51%, Eoptolink -5.54%).
- Bitcoin fell 5.83% to about 75,906 and Ether fell 8.17%. Crypto traded as a risk asset, not a haven.
Rating highlights
| Ticker | Company | Call | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM:NYSE | TSMC ADR | Sell | Intraday low 351.19 broke stop 389.36; cooling period to 11/19 |
| VRT:NYSE | Vertiv | Sell | Low 170.80 hit stop 187.28; thesis intact, price discipline exit |
| REGN:NASDAQ | Regeneron | Sell | Low 901.59 hit stop 915.04; profit exit, about +24.1% |
| CDNS:NASDAQ | Cadence | Hold (downgraded) | Closed below 50- and 200-day averages; stop 304.07 unchanged |
| NVDA:NASDAQ | Nvidia | Sell | Stopped out 10/30; cooling period to 11/13 |
| MU:NASDAQ | Micron | Sell | Stopped out 11/4; fell another 17.5% on 11/5 |
| 6160:HKEX | BeOne (H) | Watch (upgraded) | Re-entry conditions met; cooling period to 11/17 blocks a Buy |
| 688235:SSE | BeOne (A) | Hold | Q3 beat; waits for first full post-earnings session on 11/6 |
| BKSY:NYSE | BlackSky | Hold | Revenue +118%, but +14.0% day is no entry; below 200-day average |
| 2498:HKEX | Robosense | Watch (upgraded) | Re-entry conditions met on volume; +5.31% day blocks new Buy |
| 2359:HKEX | WuXi AppTec (H) | Watch (upgraded) | Back above 50-day line on 1.87x volume; cooling period to 11/17 |
| 0700:HKEX | Tencent | Hold | +7.17% day, no add; earnings 11/18 |
| LLY:NYSE | Eli Lilly | Hold | Closed at the day's low after a new high; 2.0% above stop |
| APP:NASDAQ | AppLovin | Sell | Up 31% during cooling period; no buy at RSI 71.8 |
Tenbagger radar
- BlackSky (BKSY:NYSE): kept. Path multiple 6.9x (from 7.9x, lowered because the price rose). Q3 revenue +118% passed the first check of its veto condition.
- UBTech (9880:HKEX): kept at 5.8x, only 16% above the 5x threshold. Cash runway is under two years and there are still no order announcements.
- Robosense (2498:HKEX): kept at 8.9x, the highest in the pool. The 11/5 volume reversal is price evidence, not business evidence.
- Firefly (FLY:NASDAQ): kept at 6.3x despite a new 52-week low. A gross margin of at least 15% on 11/10 is the hard test.
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM:NASDAQ): kept at 8.3x. The multiple rose only because the price fell, and short interest is 39.2%.
- Intuitive Machines (LUNR:NASDAQ): kept at 6.4x. It reports 11/12.
- No exits and no new entries today. Planet Labs, IREN and Dobot (2432:HKEX) failed the 5x path test.
Risks to watch
- The 11/6 US jobs report (consensus +65,000, unemployment 4.2%) and Vistra's pre-market earnings give the first company-level read on Texas power policy.
- A Hong Kong give-back on 11/6 is the base case, which could erase the re-entry signals on four cooling-period names.
- Earnings dates: Rocket Lab and AST (11/9), Firefly and CoreWeave (11/10), Intuitive Machines, SMIC and Applied Materials (11/12), Nvidia (11/17), Tencent (11/18).
- Policy: the briefing flags a December ERCOT large-load ruling and the January Texas legislative session. It also cites a roughly 90% December rate-hike probability from a single source, unverified.