Investment research

Daily briefing, in English

Every morning I publish a long Chinese-language briefing on the thesis that AI, robotics, space and biotech will build an era of abundance: macro, sector moves and a five-factor read on tickers across US, Hong Kong and A-shares. These are AI-written English summaries of each issue. They are notes, not investment advice.

Latest summary · 2026-11-02 Full briefings in Chinese →

Thesis check week: earnings must prove the AI capex story

Alphabet's Q3 free cash flow was -$9.07bn, its second negative quarter in a row, while it guided 2027 capex "significantly higher". The Nasdaq 100 is 9.1% below its Oct 6 high and the SOX is 19.1% below its high.

Weekend rerun: upstream margins soar while downstream hardware bleeds

Upstream margins: ChangXin Technology (688825:SSE) reported Q3 revenue of 118.7 billion yuan (+613%) and a gross margin of about 84%. Sandisk's gross margin was 85.1%.

Hedge-fund-style valuation reset: Alphabet, Intel and Sandisk fall while Regeneron soars

Nasdaq closed at 25,437 (-2.86%), its worst month since March 2025. The semiconductor index fell 7.2% in a day while the 10-year yield eased to 4.94%.

Alphabet's record drop and Amazon's cash burn split AI winners by free cash flow

Alphabet closed at 283.82 (-12.64%), its largest one-day drop, erasing roughly $500B in market value. Q3 free cash flow was -$9.07B, and capex was 121% of operating cash flow.

Alphabet's 10% After-Hours Drop Splits Winners From Sellers in Earnings

Vertiv rose 16.5% on 3.4x average volume after adjusted EPS of 2.21 against 1.82 expected and a raised 2026 guide. GE Vernova fell 1.9% on 2.7x volume despite a beat, with orders up 96%.

Supply chain reports in order and profits shift toward its ends

Celestica guided 2027 revenue to $40B (+90%) and rose 12.1% on earnings day. Teradyne's Q3 revenue grew 70% to $1.306B, but its flat Q4 guidance ($1.25–1.35B) sent the stock down 5.1% after hours.

Anthropic Files Its S-1 and Celestica Guides 2027 to $40B, but the 10-Year Hits 5%

Anthropic S-1 (26 Oct): listing as ANT on Nasdaq, earliest trading 16 Nov, H1 revenue $16.3B. Disclosed compute commitments include roughly $110B to AWS (through 2036) and roughly $114.5B to Google Cloud (through 2033). Reported totals range from $417B to over $600B and cannot simply be added.

Markets Wait on Fed and Cloud Capex as Cross-Market Price Gaps Widen

The FOMC decides on October 28 at 14:00 ET, with roughly 86% odds of a pause. Microsoft (EPS est. 4.71) and Alphabet (3.03) report that evening, and Amazon (1.96) follows on October 29.

Microsoft, the Fed and capex funding lead a packed catalyst week

Oct 28: the FOMC decides at 2pm ET. Futures put about 90% odds on no hike now but about 80% on a December hike. Microsoft (EPS est. 4.71, revenue $90.63B) and Alphabet (EPS est. 3.03) report after the close.

Lam's record quarter sinks chips as robotics euphoria hits Shanghai

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 6.72% on 10/22 to 10,731.98, its lowest close since 7/29. All 30 members fell.

Strong AI Demand Meets a Higher Cost of Capital

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 6.72% and the Nasdaq 2.60%, the Nasdaq's largest drop since June. The semiconductor index now sits only 0.7% above its 200-day line (10,658).

AI's Compute-Rental Layer Turns Profitable as Equipment Stocks Stall

SpaceX Q3 revenue was $14.58B (+161%). The Superintelligence (SI) segment brought in $7.56B (+830% YoY) and its first operating profit, $431M. Q1'27 revenue guidance is $33–37B. Q4 capex guidance is $35–40B.

SpaceX Posts First Profit as Chip Stocks Rebound After Hours

SpaceX Q3 revenue was about $14.6B (+161%, versus consensus of about $12.7B). Net income was about $4.4B, its first profit since listing. Shares rose 8.06% after hours to 159.70.

Rising Rates Squeeze Leveraged AI Infrastructure While Cash-Rich Leaders Hold

The 10-year Treasury yield was 5.15% and the 30-year 5.48% on Oct 19. The Fed raised rates to 3.75%–4.00% in September, and the market prices a December hike at roughly 75%–92% depending on the source.

SOX's 8-day slide is a funding-cost repricing, not a demand break

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) closed at 11137.29 on 10-16, down 3.83% on the day. It was the 8th straight daily decline, the longest streak since October 2008, and about 16% below its 10-06 high.

Rate cuts priced out: 10Y yield tops 5% and semiconductors fall 15.7%

The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.21% on 10/13 and was 5.09% on 10/16. The 30-year was 5.43%. The Nasdaq Composite fell 4.5% on the week, its worst since June.

TSMC posts record Q3 as rate fears reprice AI hardware

US Sept CPI was 3.7% and PPI rose 1.3% month on month. The Fed hiked to 3.75–4.00% in September, and a December hike is put at over 90% likely. The 10-year yield is 5.09%, the 30-year 5.43% and WTI crude $99.

CoreWeave Credit Shock Hits AI Hardware; Biotech Rallies Across Three Markets

US September CPI came in at 3.7% against 3.6% expected, and PPI at 6.3% against 5.5%. October rate-hike odds briefly neared 50%. CoreWeave's 2031 notes yielded above 16%, and its five-year CDS briefly topped 1,140bp. Oracle's CDS reached 282bp.

Hot CPI and CoreWeave's bond rout put AI's debt-funded build-out under scrutiny

US September CPI came in at 3.7% year on year against 3.6% expected, and core rose 0.335% month on month. October hike odds went from 20% to about 50%. The 10-year Treasury touched 5.32% before closing at 5.19%.

Reverse-Thinking Day: Korean Memory Rout Split Into Narrative, Flow and Fundamentals

KOSPI -5.46% on 2026-10-13 (-13.8% over five days). Samsung fell 7.4% and SK Hynix 10%. The briefing attributes this to flows: Samsung's buyback ended 10-06, SK Hynix's expires mid-October, and foreign investors have net sold over 200 trillion won this year.