Markets were shut for the weekend, so prices did not move, but the next ten trading days hold the year's densest run of catalysts. The briefing argues the real test is not earnings beats. It is how hyperscaler capex gets paid for, and whether free cash flow stays positive. The thesis is unchanged. Only ratings backed by new filings were changed.
Key signals
- Oct 28: the FOMC decides at 2pm ET. Futures put about 90% odds on no hike now but about 80% on a December hike. Microsoft (EPS est. 4.71, revenue $90.63B) and Alphabet (EPS est. 3.03) report after the close.
- Oct 29: Q3 GDP (est. +3.0%) and PCE (est. 3.1%) come out, followed by Amazon (EPS est. 1.96, revenue $202.16B) after the close.
- Last week, beating forecasts did not lift stocks. Lam's revenue rose 54% but the stock fell 12.8% for the week. META beat with $64.6B in revenue but fell 9.4% and broke below its 200-day line. The 10-year Treasury sits at 5.00%.
- Cambricon's Q3 revenue rose 104.47% to RMB 3.531B and net profit rose 147.74%. Chengchang Technology's Q3 net profit fell 44.43%. Both reports come out after Friday's A-share rally and get priced for the first time on Monday.
By theme
AI
For Microsoft, the numbers that matter are whether Azure grows at least 46% and whether FY27 free cash flow stays positive with capex above $50B. Kimi K3.1 Pro ranked fourth on the Artificial Analysis index and its weights are promised open-source by Nov 4. DeepSeek reportedly raised about RMB 100B ahead of a planned Shanghai IPO. OpenAI models are coming to Google Cloud, which the briefing sees as a possible negative for Azure.
Robotics
Robotics catalysts cluster on Nov 4, when CGNX and PRCT report. Companies with real results, like ISRG, keep rising, while story-driven names like SYM and Tesla's Optimus lag. In China, the Inovance and Shuanghuan reports on Oct 27 are the first test of the "buy components, not humanoid makers" view.
Space
SpaceX is aiming for its 15th Starship flight in November and declined three Space Force launch contracts. BlackSky reports on Nov 5 and is the first ten-bagger pool name to do so. Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket has slipped to 2027.
Biotech
At ESMO, Lilly's Sofe-M plus bevacizumab showed a 79.3% confirmed response rate in ovarian cancer. This is Phase I data from 33 patients. Amgen's Imdelltra cut the risk of death by 58% in small-cell lung cancer. Lilly reports on Oct 29 and Regeneron on Oct 30. Illumina's stock already trades above its consensus target, so expectations there are the fullest.
Hong Kong, A-shares and crypto
The Hang Seng fell 4.52% for the week and southbound funds were net sellers for seven straight sessions. The ChiNext index swung more than 7% intraday and closed up 4.16%. Bitcoin and Solana both dipped below $80,000 and $100 over the weekend, then recovered those levels.
Rating highlights
| Ticker | Company | Call | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA:NASDAQ | Nvidia | Buy | Forward P/E 13.4; demand evidence unchanged; stop at 205.18 |
| MU:NASDAQ | Micron | Buy | Forward P/E 4.2 implies a peak that equipment makers' comments don't support |
| ASML:NASDAQ | ASML | Buy | Only equipment name that has already reported and beat |
| COHR:NYSE | Coherent | Buy | Lowest forward P/E and P/S in optical; small position before Nov 4 |
| MSFT:NASDAQ | Microsoft | Hold | Don't add before earnings; stop at 511.43 is close |
| 688256:SSE | Cambricon | Hold (upgraded) | Revenue doubled, but Q3 operating cash flow was negative and impairments rose |
| 001270:SZSE | Chengchang Technology | Sell (downgraded) | Q3 revenue fell and profit halved; P/E 143 has no growth behind it |
| 0700:HKEX | Tencent | Buy | Forward P/E 11.3 and profit up 13%; stop at 378 |
| 300308:SZSE | Zhongji Innolight | Buy | Forward P/E 11.9 and full order book; stop at 550 |
| CRDO:NASDAQ | Credo | Sell | Broke its stop; AEC market share now contested by MaxLinear |
| ASTS:NASDAQ | AST SpaceMobile | Sell | P/S 134 while SpaceX competes and the FCC objection is unresolved |
| RXRX:NASDAQ | Recursion | Sell | Revenue down sharply, short interest near 30% |
| 600879:SSE | Aerospace Electronics | Sell | Profit down 80% at a P/E of 463 |
| FET-USD | Artificial Superintelligence Alliance | Sell | The token captures no revenue; centralized platforms take the agent value |
Tenbagger radar
- BKSY (stays): The growth path implies about 6.3x. Revenue growth needs to stay above 25% at the Nov 5 report.
- 9880:HKEX (stays): The path implies 5.7x, only about 14% above the 5x threshold.
- 2498:HKEX (stays): The path was recalculated to 8.9x. Revenue growth of 27.7% is still below the 30% threshold.
- LUNR (leaves): Using the larger market-cap figure drops the path to 4.98x. This corrects the method; the fundamentals did not change.
- 301510:SZSE (leaves): The path is only 4.6x on the larger market-cap basis, so it should not have entered the pool.
- BLLN (enters): Revenue is up 64.4%, gross margin is 71.3%, and the company is already profitable. At 5.2x it has the thinnest path in the pool, and its first check is Nov 5.
Risks to watch
- A "good numbers, bad cash flow" result from Microsoft on Oct 28, repeating META's pattern.
- A hint of a December hike from Fed Chair Warsh, which would raise discount rates for AI assets that rely on outside funding.
- The Nov 3 midterm election falls on the same day as AMD's results.
- The 1.6T optical module question: China's Eoptolink says volumes are ramping, while US names point to delays. Eoptolink reports on Oct 30 and Lumentum on Nov 5.