This was the first trading day of a week packed with a Fed decision, cloud-giant earnings and peak A-share third-quarter reporting. The briefing's main finding is that the same AI and contract-research leaders carry very different prices in New York, Hong Kong and mainland China. Foreign investors are paying more than domestic ones for China's AI and CXO leaders. The practical rule: buy the same company in whichever market is cheapest. The thesis that AI, robotics, space and biotech will drive an era of abundance still holds, and this week's cloud capex guidance is the shared test for all three markets.
Key signals
- The FOMC decides on October 28 at 14:00 ET, with roughly 86% odds of a pause. Microsoft (EPS est. 4.71) and Alphabet (3.03) report that evening, and Amazon (1.96) follows on October 29.
- The AH premium index closed at 133.03, within 0.9% of its 52-week high. Even so, WuXi AppTec's A-shares trade 7.96% below its H-shares, and Zhongji Innolight's sit 2.74% below.
- Accelink's Q3 net profit rose 102.62% to RMB 702 million. However, inventory is up 110.76% and nine-month operating cash flow is negative RMB 1.881 billion.
- Anthropic planned to file its S-1 publicly on October 26 at a target valuation of $2 trillion. OpenAI cut its funding valuation to $1.25 trillion, and DeepSeek raised about $15 billion at roughly $75 billion.
- Bitcoin dipped below 80,000 in early UTC trading on October 26. US futures rose 0.4% (S&P) and 0.6% (Nasdaq 100).
By theme
AI
Kimi K3.1 Pro scored 65.7% on Terminal-Bench 4.0, just behind Opus 5.5 at 66.4%, at about half the API price. Its weights are due to be open-sourced by November 4. DeepSeek's open-source DeepInfer framework natively supports Huawei Ascend 950, a long-term risk to Nvidia's share in China. Model capabilities differ by single-digit points, but valuations differ by 15–25x.
Robotics
Tesla's Optimus line is running at Fremont, and the goal of 20,000 units a week by 2027 is a target, not output. Teradyne reports on October 27, and the test is whether its robotics unit breaks even. In China, Inovance and Shuanghuan report on October 27 after the October 23 limit-up rally, and the briefing says not to chase.
Space
Rocket Lab flew its 98th Electron mission, but Neutron has slipped to 2027. SpaceX's 15th Starship flight is set for November, with both stages expected to return. With SpaceX moving into direct-to-cell service, AST SpaceMobile stays a Sell. China's Long March 8A launched another batch of constellation satellites, but A-share satellite earnings have not kept pace.
Biotech
At ESMO, the Merck/Moderna personalized mRNA vaccine met its Phase III goal (RFS HR 0.58). However, metastasis-free survival (DMFS HR 0.62) came in below expectations, and the data leaked early. Amgen's Imdelltra nearly doubled median overall survival (21.1 vs 12.7 months). Google's closed-loop aptamer study raised hit rates from 0% to 42.1% over three rounds, which the briefing calls the week's key paper.
Hong Kong, A-shares and crypto
The Hang Seng fell 4.52% for the week, and southbound flows were net sellers for seven straight days (about HK$15.2 billion in October). Dongshan Precision's H-share listing on October 28 raises about HK$9.9 billion. Bitcoin, Ethereum and FET weakened while US equity futures rose, a split in expectations ahead of the Fed.
Rating highlights
| Ticker | Company | Call | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA:NASDAQ | Nvidia | Buy | Forward PE 13.4; demand evidence unchanged; stop at 205.18 is only 2.7% below |
| MU:NASDAQ | Micron | Buy | Forward PE 4.2 prices in a peak that A-share memory data contradicts |
| TSM:NYSE | TSMC ADR | Buy | Add below 412; Taiwan shares (2330) are about 10% cheaper |
| ASML:NASDAQ | ASML | Buy | Only toolmaker whose catalyst already landed and beat expectations |
| COHR:NYSE | Coherent | Buy | Cheapest optical name; small position only; stop at 192.55 |
| CRDO:NASDAQ | Credo | Sell | Fell 9.5% on heavy volume; broke its stop with no new facts |
| ASTS:NASDAQ | AST SpaceMobile | Sell | SpaceX entering direct-to-cell; P/S of 103 leaves no margin of safety |
| GH:NASDAQ | Guardant Health | Buy | New Buy initiation from Roth on October 23; stop at 152.33 |
| RXRX:NASDAQ | Recursion | Sell | Revenue down sharply, short interest near 30%, no clinical delivery |
| 0700:HKEX | Tencent | Buy | Forward PE 11.3; southbound still buying |
| 300308:SZSE | Zhongji Innolight | Buy | Orders placed into 2027, with 2028 demand guidance; forward PE 11.9 |
| 603259:SSE | WuXi AppTec (A) | Buy | Cheapest of its listings; small position only before results; stop at 134.78 |
| 688008:SSE | Montage Technology | Buy | Buyback averaged about RMB 196, above the current RMB 180 price |
| 002747:SZSE | Estun | Sell | 14% above target after limit-up; PE of 150 with 12% growth |
| 001270:SZSE | Chengchang Technology | Sell | Q3 revenue fell 5.72% and net profit fell 44.43% |
Tenbagger radar
- BlackSky (BKSY:NYSE): stays in the pool. The modeled upside path is 6.3x, and the November 5 report needs revenue growth of at least 25%.
- UBTech (9880:HKEX): stays in at 5.7x. It would drop out on about a 13% further gain because the multiple would fall below the threshold.
- RoboSense (2498:HKEX): stays in at 8.9x. Growth is below the 30% bar, and a market-cap data anomaly is flagged for checking next issue.
- BillionToOne (BLLN:NASDAQ): stays in at 5.2x, just above the cutoff. November 5 is the first test.
- No new entries: the screen covered 120 names across the three markets. No A-share name qualified.
Risks to watch
- October 28: FOMC decision plus Microsoft, Alphabet, Vertiv and KLA results. October 29: GDP and PCE data, Amazon and Intel results.
- Positive earnings with weak cash flow: both Accelink and Cambricon show this pattern.
- WuXi AppTec: results came out on the evening of October 26. Pending export-control rules and ongoing litigation are risks, and its H-shares sit only 1.9% above their stop.
- November 3: the US midterms fall on the same day as AMD's results. Brent crude remains near $116 amid Iran strike reports.