Demand for the thesis accelerated on 26 October. Anthropic filed its S-1 with long-dated compute commitments, and Celestica gave its first 2027 revenue guide of $40B (about +90%). But the 10-year Treasury yield is at 5.00%, so the price of capital is moving against the thesis. The briefing's view is that abundance is still intact, but the companies funding compute with debt are the ones most at risk.
Key signals
- Anthropic S-1 (26 Oct): listing as ANT on Nasdaq, earliest trading 16 Nov, H1 revenue $16.3B. Disclosed compute commitments include roughly $110B to AWS (through 2036) and roughly $114.5B to Google Cloud (through 2033). Reported totals range from $417B to over $600B and cannot simply be added.
- Celestica Q3: revenue $5.83B (+83%), adjusted EPS $3.30 against $2.99 expected. It guided 2027 revenue of $40B and EPS of $21.50, and said 2028 demand is "significantly higher". The stock closed at 246.65 and traded around 288 after hours.
- Rates and macro: the 10-year closed at 5.00% (30-year at 5.31%), September CPI was 3.7%, and Brent was $116.72. The FOMC decision comes on 28 Oct, with about 90% odds of a pause. Roughly 75% of traders expect at least one more hike before year-end. Q3 GDP (consensus 3.2%) and September PCE (3.6%) follow on 29 Oct.
- Asia: Southbound flows were net sellers for a ninth straight day (HK$2.075B net sold on 26 Oct). The ChiNext fell 1.71%, and robotics stocks hit limit-up after JPMorgan upgraded Unitree.
- Earnings this week: Microsoft, Alphabet and ServiceNow report 28 Oct, and Amazon and Intel on 29 Oct. They will test whether the long-dated commitments show up as backlog.
By theme
AI
- The briefing splits AI names by who funds compute: self-funded hyperscalers and suppliers, long-term lessees such as Anthropic and Broadcom, and debt-funded Neoclouds.
- A reported $63B Broadcom financing arrangement and a $40B SpaceX GPU debt deal are both unverified, based on finviz headlines only.
- CoreWeave, Nebius, IREN and Applied Digital are oversold (RSI 27.4 for CoreWeave, 28.8 for Nebius, 26.4 for IREN) and rated Watch.
- Cadence beat on EPS ($2.11 vs $2.05) and revenue ($1.63B vs $1.61B) and raised its full-year outlook.
Robotics
- JPMorgan lifted Unitree from underweight to overweight, with a target of 995 yuan and 2028 unit sales of 111,600.
- AGIBOT launched the Genie G2 Max, and its latest funding round reportedly values it at about 500B yuan.
- Inovance's robotics and digital energy business grew 88%, but deducted profit fell 5.4% and operating cash flow dropped 77%.
- Tesla rose 5.2% after a Barclays upgrade (target $450) but stays at Watch on valuation (forward PE 191).
Space
- Starship Flight 15 is targeted no earlier than 8 Nov, attempting to catch both booster and ship.
- Rocket Lab pushed Neutron's first flight to 2027, though its backlog exceeds 100 launches.
- SpaceX (SPCX) is rated Hold at a market cap of about $2.0T. Firefly (FLY) is rated Watch, and Firefly reports on 11 Nov.
- Shanghai issued a satellite internet action plan covering 2027–2030, but China's A-share space names are priced at very high PEs.
Biotech
- WuXi AppTec's Q3 revenue grew 38.0%, deducted profit rose 49.9%, backlog is up 36.4%, and full-year guidance was raised. The briefing upgrades both its H-share and A-share to Buy.
- Eli Lilly reports on 29 Oct and is rated Hold. Regeneron (30 Oct), Vertex (2 Nov) and Amgen (3 Nov) follow.
- Moderna sits about 44% above the consensus target and is rated Watch.
- Series E rounds: Pathos AI raised $237M, led by Bristol Myers Squibb, and Warp Sciences raised $215M.
Hong Kong, A-shares and crypto
- HK tech platforms trade at forward PEs of 11–14 (Tencent 11.3), while HK chip names fell (GigaDevice −6%, Hua Hong −4%).
- Optical and PCB names led A-share losses on 26 Oct (Shenghong... Zhongji Innolight −3.0%, Eoptolink −3.6%, Shengyi-linked Wus −7.6%) despite strong orders, which the briefing reads as pre-earnings de-risking.
- Bitcoin is around $79,985 after twice breaking $80,000. Spot BTC ETFs had $773.5M of net outflows over 22–23 Oct, and the briefing rates BTC Watch.
Rating highlights
| Ticker | Company | Call | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| CDNS | Cadence | Buy (upgraded) | Q3 beat and raised guidance; reclaimed the 50-day average; small position only |
| 2359:HKEX | WuXi AppTec (H) | Buy (upgraded) | Q3 beat, guidance raised, backlog +36.4%; trades 7% below the A-share |
| 603259:SSE | WuXi AppTec (A) | Buy | Passed all five checkpoints; add toward a standard position |
| NVDA | Nvidia | Buy | Forward PE 13.7; S-1 adds roughly $85.9B of GPU contracts |
| MU | Micron | Buy | Forward PE 4.3; A-share memory chain Q3 reports are strong |
| TSM | TSMC ADR | Buy | Advanced packaging demand evidence; add below 412 |
| CLS | Celestica | Watch | Beat and 2027 guide, but after-hours jump of 10–17% breaks the no-chase rule |
| AVGO | Broadcom | Watch | Below both averages; $161.2B rental backlog is rate-sensitive |
| CRDO | Credo | Sell | Stopped out 23 Oct; cooling-off period runs to 6 Nov |
| ASTS | AST SpaceMobile | Sell | P/S 103 with SpaceX direct-to-phone competition |
| 002747:SZSE | Estun Automation | Sell | Trades 20% above the consensus target; PE 157 |
| 001270:SZSE | Chengchang Technology | Sell | Q3 profit −44.4%; limit-down on 26 Oct |
Tenbagger radar
- BKSY:NYSE (Kept): path 7.4x, though the rise from 6.3x comes from a data-source change. Revenue growth must reach 25% at the 5 Nov report.
- 9880:HKEX (Kept): path 5.7x, only about 14% above the 5x threshold. Cash runway is under two years.
- 2498:HKEX (Kept): path 8.7x. The market-cap discrepancy was resolved, but revenue growth is below the 30% threshold.
- BLLN:NASDAQ (Removed): after a 3.4% rise the path is 4.99x, below the 5x threshold.
- FLY:NASDAQ (Added, conditional): path 5.9x, but it clears the bar only because of a change in market-cap data. It would be removed if Eclipse has not flown by June 2027.
- 688062:SSE (Added): Maiwei Biologics, path 6.0x, with a Nectin-4 ADC in Phase III. Debt exceeds cash, and the exposure depends on licensing income.
Risks to watch
- Rates: the 28 Oct FOMC, then GDP and PCE on 29 Oct. A December hike or a 30-year yield near 5.5% would hit debt-funded compute first.
- Hyperscaler capex: Microsoft and Alphabet on 28 Oct and Amazon on 29 Oct must back up Celestica's $40B 2027 guide.
- IPO supply: SpaceX, Anthropic (mid-November) and OpenAI together may add trillions of dollars in new market value.
- Policy and data: US midterm elections on 3 Nov; AMD reports the same day. Nvidia reports on 17 Nov.