The AI supply chain reported results this week, upstream to downstream. None of the numbers show demand slowing. What changed is where the profit sits. The market rewarded firms that can't be replaced and firms with long contracts, and sold Teradyne, whose test-equipment guidance covers only one quarter. Buyers of AI compute are also changing how they pay: they now use stock, leases and money from their own suppliers instead of only free cash flow. The abundance thesis still holds, but supplier credit risk is rising.
Key signals
- Celestica guided 2027 revenue to $40B (+90%) and rose 12.1% on earnings day. Teradyne's Q3 revenue grew 70% to $1.306B, but its flat Q4 guidance ($1.25–1.35B) sent the stock down 5.1% after hours.
- Meta announced up to $95B in equity financing. Nvidia committed $3B and AMD $1B. Meta fell 1.6% on 2.5x its average volume.
- Broadcom arranged a $63B syndicated financing for Anthropic's TPU leases. Broadcom provides residual-value support equal to the first-lien debt.
- In A-shares, the ChiNext index fell 3.41% and the STAR 50 fell 4.81% on October 27. More than 4,900 stocks declined. Small robotics concept stocks rose against the market.
- Catalysts: the FOMC decision is October 28 at 14:00 ET. Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close. Q3 GDP and PCE data arrive October 29.
By theme
AI
OpenAI launched GPT-6.1 Terra with API prices cut 50%. By OpenAI's own unverified test, an agent task costs $1.01. Anthropic's S-1 lists over $400B in compute commitments. It also says its models could be used to gain unauthorized access to third-party systems; the media details of that disclosure are unverified. Cadence beat estimates, raised guidance and got four target-price increases.
Robotics
Teradyne's robotics unit had record Q3 revenue of $96M and was profitable, but that was below Q2's $100M. Agility Robotics' SPAC (about $2.5B valuation, 10,000-unit annual capacity) holds its vote on November 2. UBTech fell 7.6% in Hong Kong even though it signed an MOU with Ras Al Khaimah.
Space
Space stocks rose 5–9% across the sector on October 27 without any company news. Starship Flight 15 is set for no earlier than November 8 and will attempt a dual catch. Ratings were not changed because of the rally.
Biotech
The FDA issued draft guidance on individualized gene-editing therapies. It would let these products be updated without resubmitting a BLA, and Beam rose 4.7%. Lilly reports October 29 and Regeneron October 30.
Hong Kong, A-shares and crypto
In Q3, Hengrui's net profit rose 88.9%, mostly from licensing income. Its product sales grew only 2.5% for the first nine months. WuXi AppTec and Hansoh fell along with the rest of Hong Kong pharma. Bitcoin held its October 24 low of $79,145 and traded near $80,735. The October 26 ETF inflow came entirely from IBIT.
Rating highlights
| Ticker | Company | Call | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA:NASDAQ | Nvidia | Buy | Meta stake secures Vera Rubin orders; no adding before cloud earnings |
| TSM:NYSE | TSMC ADR | Buy | Reclaimed 50-day line; add only below 420 |
| CDNS:NASDAQ | Cadence | Buy | Raised guidance, four target hikes; buy only below 320 after 6.5% jump |
| COHR:NYSE | Coherent | Buy | Two-day bottoming signal met; wait for pullback below 215 |
| 300308:SZSE | Zhongji Innolight | Buy | Forward P/E 11.2; customer evidence strengthening; reports October 29 |
| 2359:HKEX | WuXi AppTec (H) | Buy | Q3 checks passed; small position, stop only 1.6% away |
| 3692:HKEX | Hansoh Pharma | Buy | Hengrui's licensing growth supports its BD model |
| CLS:NYSE | Celestica | Watch | Upgrade to Buy if Oct 28 close ≥268.2 |
| TER:NASDAQ | Teradyne | Watch | Beat but flat Q4 guide; must hold 297.77 |
| META:NASDAQ | Meta | Watch | Equity raise means dilution; wait for first-tranche pricing |
| AVGO:NASDAQ | Broadcom | Watch | Residual-value support keeps customer credit risk on its balance sheet |
| ASTS:NASDAQ | AST SpaceMobile | Sell | SpaceX direct-to-cell pressure; P/S 142 |
| 002747:SZSE | Estun | Sell | Above consensus target; revenue only +12%; 7% drop confirms |
| 600879:SSE | Aerospace Electronics | Sell | Net profit down 80%, P/E 444 |
| FET-USD | Artificial Superintelligence Alliance | Sell | Token lacks a way to capture revenue |
Tenbagger radar
- BKSY:NYSE (BlackSky): Stays. The modeled path is 6.9x. The November 5 earnings must show revenue growth of at least 25%.
- 9880:HKEX (UBTech): Stays, but it is the name closest to exit. A share placement below HK$50 would trigger the exit rule, and the price is near its 52-week low.
- 2498:HKEX (RoboSense): Stays at 9.1x, the highest in the pool. It is an exception because revenue growth is below the 30% threshold.
- FLY:NASDAQ (Firefly Aerospace): Stays at 5.4x, only 8% above the 5x threshold. A further 8% rise in the stock would trigger an exit.
- 688062:SSE (Mabwell): Stays. It has more debt than cash, and the price is nearing the CNY 20 placement red line.
- No new entries. Caris Life Sciences modeled only 3.7x.
Risks to watch
- FOMC (October 28): Goldman expects a pause now and a final hike in December. Q3 GDP (forecast 3.2%) and PCE (forecast 3.6%) come October 29. The US midterms are November 3.
- Earnings: Microsoft and Alphabet (October 28), Amazon and Intel (October 29), AMD (November 3), Nvidia (November 17–18).
- Several A-share and Hong Kong holdings are within 0.6–3% of their stop-losses, including BeiGene H, China UAV, Hengrui and Mindray. The rule is to exit on a close below the stop, with no prediction and no averaging down.
- Supplier financing (vendor financing) shifts customer credit risk onto upstream chipmakers. The briefing says their valuation multiples should carry a discount for this.