Palantir, Apple, Lumentum, Tempus and Fabrinet all reported strong numbers on November 2. The Nasdaq 100 still closed in correction, 10.4% below its October 6 high. The briefing reads this as the market pricing who pays for AI buildout and how, rather than doubting demand. The abundance thesis is intact on fundamentals, but no price has yet shown a confirmed bottom. The issue opens no new buys and executes five sells under its rating discipline.
Key signals
- Marvell–Lumentum deal: Marvell agreed to buy Lumentum in an all-stock deal valued at $115B, at 4.5 MRVL shares per LITE share, with closing expected in 1H 2028. On the day, MRVL fell 12.7% and LITE fell 18.6%. LITE trades 12.7% below the implied deal value, and BofA cut MRVL to Neutral.
- Lumentum's fiscal Q1 cleared most of the briefing's checks:
- Revenue was $1.263B, up 136.5%.
- Non-GAAP gross margin was 53.2%.
- The components segment brought in $754.2M.
- Cash fell $758.8M because of convertible note settlements.
- Palantir: revenue rose 96% to $2.313B. US commercial revenue of $984M grew 148% and passed US government revenue for the first time. Full-year guidance rose to $8.53B.
- Oracle: announced a $10B stock offering plus $10B in bonds to fund AI buildout. The stock fell 8.8%.
- Semiconductors and volatility: the Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 12% over three sessions to 10,328. The VIX closed above 20 for the first time since June.
By theme
AI
Funding has tightened at the model layer: OpenAI has confirmed only about $11B of its current round. On November 2 alone, private markets disclosed 28 deals worth about $1.7B, and money flowed to data, robotics and space. Apple guided December-quarter gross margin to 45–46%, below the 46.3% consensus, blaming memory and chip costs. The briefing reads that as confirmation of pricing power for suppliers like Micron.
Robotics
Tutor Intelligence raised $75M (led by a16z) and GenRobot AI raised $100M. All three Chinese robotics rounds that day went to data, models and simulation, not complete robots. The briefing calls this a negative for parts makers' valuations. Tesla's Optimus will not take orders in December.
Space
The biggest space raise went to ground stations: Northwood Space raised $375M at roughly a $2B valuation. Rocket Lab completed its 99th Electron launch but still fell 4.9%. Google's own energy lead said orbital data centers could cost 100 times more than ground-based ones.
Biotech
- Tempus: posted its first positive adjusted EBITDA ($25.6M) and has signed more than $550M in data-licensing deals this year.
- CRISPR: revenue from its Casgevy therapy reached $99M, up 30% from the prior quarter.
- Vertex: raised full-year guidance to $13.15–13.25B. The FDA decision on its kidney drug povetacicept is due November 30.
- Recursion: now expects its cash to last into 2029, mainly thanks to a dilutive share sale.
Hong Kong, A-shares and crypto
Third-quarter fund filings show active mainland funds raised Hong Kong healthcare to 26.1% of holdings and cut semiconductors to 11.3%. On November 2, that trade moved the wrong way: chips and optical names rallied while healthcare fell. The Hang Seng Tech index rose 2.25% and the Shanghai Composite 1.08%. Optical leaders hit their daily limit-up and then gave back the gains. Bitcoin slipped to $76,666 and AI tokens hit new lows despite a 7.6% drop in oil.
Rating highlights
| Ticker | Company | Call | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT:NASDAQ | Microsoft | Sell (downgraded) | Intraday low hit stop; thesis unchanged, price discipline exit |
| BEAM:NASDAQ | Beam Therapeutics | Sell (downgraded) | Stop hit; tenbagger pool status kept separately |
| GH:NASDAQ | Guardant Health | Sell (downgraded) | Intraday low breached stop despite close slightly above |
| 6160:HKEX | BeiGene (H) | Sell (downgraded) | Intraday stop triggered; cooling-off until Nov 17 |
| 9926:HKEX | Akeso | Sell (downgraded) | Closed below stated 79.55 support despite positive Phase III data |
| TSM:NYSE | TSMC ADR | Buy | Advanced-node bottleneck thesis intact; no add, stop 389.36 |
| ASML:NASDAQ | ASML | Buy | No evidence against 2027 equipment-spending growth; stop 1,487.89 |
| CDNS:NASDAQ | Cadence | Buy | Up on a down tech day; buy in candidate range |
| 2359:HKEX | WuXi AppTec (H) | Buy | Orders up 36%; no add, stop 175.85 |
| 603259:SSE | WuXi AppTec (A) | Buy | Thesis intact but only 1.2% above stop |
| 3692:HKEX | Hansoh Pharma | Buy | Roche licensing upfront validates cash flow; buy in range |
| MRVL:NASDAQ | Marvell | Watch | Spread prices deal risk; no stabilization signal |
| LITE:NASDAQ | Lumentum | Watch | Now trades as 4.5 MRVL shares plus spread |
| TEM:NASDAQ | Tempus AI | Hold | First adjusted profit; not chasing the 8.7% jump |
Tenbagger radar
- BlackSky (BKSY): stays in. Path estimate rose to 7.4x only because the share price fell. November 5 earnings test the "revenue growth at least 25%" condition.
- UBTech (9880): stays in at 6.0x. Evidence weakened: cash runway is under two years and funding is flowing to the data layer, not robot makers.
- RoboSense (2498): stays in at 9.4x, the highest in the pool, despite a new 52-week low.
- Firefly (FLY): stays in at 6.0x. Its November 11 gross margin of at least 15% is the hard test.
- Beam (BEAM): stays in at 8.0x. None of its exit conditions were triggered, even though its trading rating is Sell.
- No new entries: Aehr (2.5x), Yuanjie (1.6x) and AST SpaceMobile (5.3x, evidence unverified) all failed the entry criteria.
Risks to watch
- November 3: AMD, Arista, Astera Labs, Supermicro, Amgen and Beam report after the close; Eaton reports before the open. Arista is already below its 200-day average.
- November 4–5: Arm, Qualcomm and Coherent report, along with BlackSky, Guardant and Natera. Coherent's stop is 192.55.
- Macro: US midterm elections on November 3 and payrolls on November 6. US–Iran agreement reports are pushing oil lower.
- Positions near stops: WuXi AppTec A-shares, TSMC, WuXi AppTec H-shares, Micron and ASML are each within 2.5% of their stops.