AMD, Arista and Supermicro beat on earnings and rose after hours, while Apple and Palantir fell despite beats. Per the briefing, positioning before the print decided the reaction. Hong Kong and A-share AI hardware sold off on an unverified report. For the abundance thesis, demand for AI compute is intact, but the briefing waits for closing-price confirmation before changing any rating.
Key signals
- AMD Q3 revenue was $13.4B (+45%) and data center revenue $8.5B (+97%). Q4 guidance is about $17B, and 2027 revenue growth is guided above 80%. The stock rose about 7% after hours to 518–520, still below its 50-day line at 549.
- Arista guided Q4 revenue to $3.9–4.0B against about $3.6B expected, and rose about 12% after hours. Supermicro guided FY2027 net sales to $72–82B against $69.17B expected, and rose about 9% after hours. Eaton rose 7.0% in the session after data center orders grew 100% on a rolling 12-month basis.
- Apple fell 1.9% and Palantir 1.65% on their first full sessions after earnings, even though both beat. Vertex fell 4.05%. The briefing's explanation is that the four winners had dropped 19–25% in the month before earnings and hedge funds were deleveraging at the fastest pace since March.
- A-share optical and CPO names fell 9–13% on a single-source, unverified report of a Goldman earnings cut for Zhongji Innolight (marked unverified). Cambricon fell 10.8% and its market cap dropped below 500B yuan.
- Anthropic's amended S-1 shows Q3 revenue of about $17B, a net loss of $23.29B and compute commitments of about $895.4B. Its valuation expectation reportedly fell from $2T to $1.5–1.6T.
By theme
AI
- Beyond AMD, Gemini 4 Carbon scored 59 on the Artificial Analysis index (Opus 5.5: 58, GPT-6 Astra: 57), but it has no general-availability date.
- Anthropic's compute commitments are the largest single figure for the neocloud and power chain (CRWV, NBIS, VRT, ETN).
- The briefing says the market is trading the AMD, Arista and Supermicro beats on positioning, not on the size of the beat. It treats Arm, Qualcomm, Coherent and AppLovin (all reporting Nov 4 after the close) as the next tests.
Robotics
- Primary-market robotics funding keeps going to training-data models rather than whole humanoids: Tutor Intelligence raised $75M (a16z) and Machenta $40M in seed funding.
- Cognex closed 0.1% above its 200-day line and reports Nov 4 after the close. It is rated Hold.
- UBTech (9880:HKEX) closed at 62.10, within 0.1 HKD of its 52-week low. RoboSense (2498:HKEX) was cut to Sell after closing below its stated support level of 12.81.
Space
- SpaceX (SPCX) closed up 3.62% and stays Watch. Starship Flight 15 has no official date (NET mid-November).
- BlackSky reports Nov 5 after the close. Revenue growth below 25% year over year would remove it from the ten-bagger pool. It also announced a Dec 2 investor day.
- Firefly reports Nov 11, with a gross margin of at least 15% as the hard test. Rocket Lab and AST report Nov 9.
Biotech
- Vertex fell 4.05% on volume after raising its full-year guidance. The povetacicept PDUFA date is Nov 30.
- Beam said the risto-cel BLA could come as early as the end of 2026. It stays at Sell for now because it hit its stop on Nov 2.
- Amgen beat on Q3 but traded lower after hours on biosimilar concerns. Illumina rose 5.1% on selection for a Singapore precision-medicine programme (details unverified).
- Novo Nordisk reports Nov 4 pre-market, and Moderna reports Nov 6.
Hong Kong, A-shares and crypto
Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.57%, but AI and healthcare names fell. GenScript dropped 15.5% after a company-secretary death announcement. In A-shares the ChiNext index fell 2.73% to its lowest since August 2025. Bitcoin rose 0.8% to 77,298.6, holding the Oct 30 low of 76,190 for a third test. AI tokens made new lows before closing slightly higher.
Rating highlights
| Ticker | Company | Call | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM:NYSE | TSMC ADR | Buy | Held above the 200-day line; AMD guidance supports N3/N2 demand; stop at 389.36. |
| ASML:NASDAQ | ASML | Buy | Thesis of a growing 2027 wafer-equipment market has no contrary evidence; stop 1,487.89. |
| CDNS:NASDAQ | Cadence | Buy | EDA seen as the most irreplaceable upstream layer; entry zone covered, stop 304.07. |
| 3692:HKEX | Hansoh Pharma | Buy | Licensing upfront validates cash flow; wait for the entry zone of 30.71–31.38. |
| AMD:NASDAQ | AMD | Watch | Beat and guide, but wait for the Nov 4 close; after-hours price is below the 50-day line. |
| NVDA:NASDAQ | Nvidia | Sell | Stopped out Oct 30; cooling period to Nov 13; earnings Nov 17. |
| MSFT:NASDAQ | Microsoft | Sell | Stopped out Nov 2; cooling period to Nov 16 despite closing above the 50-day line. |
| 688256:SSE | Cambricon | Sell (downgraded) | Closed at 767.93, below the 850 support level set last issue. |
| 688008:SSE | Montage Technology | Sell (downgraded) | Intraday low of 148.61 hit the 155.66 stop; cooling period to Nov 17. |
| 2359:HKEX | WuXi AppTec (H) | Sell (downgraded) | Intraday low of 172.40 hit the 175.85 stop; order backlog thesis intact. |
| 1385:HKEX | Fudan Microelectronics | Sell (downgraded) | Closed at 21.10, below the 21.14 support level. |
| 2498:HKEX | RoboSense | Sell (downgraded) | Closed at 12.79, below the 12.81 support level; ten-bagger pool stays "keep". |
Tenbagger radar
- BlackSky (BKSY:NYSE): kept. Path multiple is about 7.6x. A Dec 2 investor day was added, and the Nov 5 earnings are the first veto test.
- UBTech (9880:HKEX): kept at about 6.3x. Evidence weakened: the price is within 1.3% of its 52-week low and cash runway is under two years.
- RoboSense (2498:HKEX): kept at about 9.8x, the highest in the pool. The short-term rating was cut to Sell on the price break.
- Firefly Aerospace (FLY:NASDAQ): kept at about 6.3x. The Nov 11 gross margin of at least 15% is the hard test.
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM:NASDAQ): kept at about 8.3x. The BLA timeline strengthened the case, but cash burn could trigger a veto sooner. The pool had no new entrants. AXT, Redwire and Junshi Bio failed the screens, and no A-share name qualified for the fourth issue in a row.
Risks to watch
- Earnings in the next ten trading days: Nov 4 (Novo Nordisk, Arm, Qualcomm, Coherent, AppLovin, Cognex), Nov 5 (BlackSky, IonQ, Kratos, Guardant, Natera), Nov 9 (Rocket Lab, AST), Nov 10 (CoreWeave), Nov 12 (Applied Materials, Nebius).
- Macro: US midterm results were still being counted when the briefing was written, and non-farm payrolls are due Nov 6. The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.95%.
- Stop-loss edges for Nov 4: BeiGene A-share is 1.0% above its 238.87 stop. TSM, ASML and Micron are within about 4–5% of their stops.
- Binary events: Vertex PDUFA on Nov 30, Nvidia earnings on Nov 17, and the unverified Goldman report on Zhongji Innolight.